National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Local Statement for Houston / Galveston, TX

Issued at 1253 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 231749
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly
reformed Tropical Depression Harvey, located in the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico.

An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending across
the Bahamas, southern Florida, and the adjacent waters is associated
with a trough of low pressure. Any development of this system
during the next few days should be slow to occur while it drifts
northward over Florida and the adjacent waters. Thereafter, some
tropical or subtropical development is possible over the weekend
when the system begins to move northeastward over the western
Atlantic before it merges with a front. Regardless of development,
very heavy rain and flooding is possible over portions of the
Florida peninsula during the next few days. Please refer to
products from your local National Weather Service office for more
information on this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Harvey are issued under WMO header
WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on Harvey are issued under WMO header
WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

$$


Forecaster Blake

Local Statement for Austin / San Antonio, TX

Issued at 1247 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Local Statement for Corpus Christi, TX

Issued at 1237 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Tropical Depression Harvey Graphics

Tropical Depression Harvey 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 23 Aug 2017 17:33:38 GMT

Tropical Depression Harvey 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 23 Aug 2017 15:29:33 GMT

Summary for Tropical Depression Harvey (AT4/AL092017)

...HARVEY MOVING LITTLE BUT EXPECTED TO RESUME A NORTHWESTWARD COURSE SOON... As of 1:00 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 the center of Harvey was located near 21.5, -92.5 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Harvey Public Advisory Number 12A

Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

000
WTNT34 KNHC 231731
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Harvey Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
100 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

...HARVEY MOVING LITTLE BUT EXPECTED TO RESUME A NORTHWESTWARD
COURSE SOON...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 92.5W
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM SE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to High Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Boca De Catan Mexico to Port Mansfield Texas
* North of San Luis Pass to High Island

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in southwestern Louisiana should monitor the progress of
this system for possible watches this afternoon.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Harvey
was located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 92.5 West.  The
depression has been nearly stationary for the past few hours, but
is expected to resume a motion toward the northwest near 9 mph
(15 km/h) later today.  A track toward the northwest or
north-northwest is expected for the next 48 hours.  On the forecast
track, Harvey should be approaching the Texas coast late Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours,
and
Harvey could become a hurricane on Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 15 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches over the
middle and upper Texas coast and southwest Louisiana through next
Tuesday, with heavy rainfall beginning as early as Friday morning.
Harvey is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to
9 inches in portions of south, central, and northeast Texas and the
rest of the lower Mississippi Valley. Rainfall from Harvey could
cause life-threatening flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide
will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is expected to
reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs
at
the time of high tide...

Port Mansfield to High Island...4 to 6 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.  Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area by late Friday, with tropical storm conditions possible by
early Friday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Harvey are likely to affect the Texas,
Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts by Friday.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Local Statement for Brownsville, TX

Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Tropical Depression Harvey Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map

Tropical Depression Harvey Link to Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Wed, 23 Aug 2017 15:41:22 GMT

Tropical Depression Harvey Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics

Tropical Depression Harvey Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics Image
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Wed, 23 Aug 2017 15:15:48 GMT

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